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According to the report of well-known industry research institutions in the United States, in the recent month, ICE cotton futures have broken through the narrow consolidation range of more than a year and soared to more than 100 cents, and currently stay at about 95 cents, but the performance of the near and far month contract is different.

During this time, the ICE cotton futures front-month contract (May and July) has seen similar gains, but the December contract has seen very limited gains, basically fluctuating between 82 and 85 cents, mainly due to the better Northern Hemisphere harvest outlook for 2024/25. With the sharp increase in the July contract, the difference between the old and new ICE annual contracts widened to 15 cents, and the two are still more than 10 cents apart.

The surge in futures prices has been accompanied by a surge in open positions. ICE cotton futures holdings are up 33% since mid-January and are now at a high for the year, but only slightly higher than they were in early October. The increase in positions indicates that money is flowing into cotton futures. According to CFTC statistics, since mid-January, speculative positions in cotton futures have turned from several thousand lots of net short to more than 80,000 lots of net long. Over the same period, the May contract rose from less than 85 cents to more than 95 cents.

From the spot point of view, the current situation is mixed, on the one hand, the US cotton export supply is tight, on the other hand, the demand situation is still poor, and the price rise and large fluctuations may not have a positive impact on consumption. U.S. cotton production in 2023/24 was the lowest in the last fourteen years and close to the 2009/10 low. The United States is the world's largest cotton exporter, so a drop in U.S. cotton supplies alone could raise concerns about global export supplies. This year, a drop in Chinese imports has exacerbated that concern. This year, the United States cotton production decreased by 2.3 million bales, while so far this year, the United States cotton committed exports to China increased by more than 1.9 million bales, an increase of 84%. Moreover, China's imports are not only American cotton, but also strong demand for Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton. As of January this year, Brazilian cotton exports to China increased by 2.2 million bales, or 121 percent, compared with the same period last year. Australian cotton exports to China increased by 900,000 bales, or 781%.

At the same time, Chinese cotton prices have not followed the external market sharply higher. If the price of imported cotton is not advantageous, China's import demand will weaken. During the two cotton price booms in 2010/11 and 2021/22, international cotton prices collapsed shortly after international cotton prices rose significantly above Chinese cotton prices. At present, although the Kotruk A index has not surpassed the Chinese cotton price, it has been very close recently (Kotruk A index is 105 cents, and the Chinese cotton price is about 108 cents).

While China's imports have soared, demand from other importers around the world is clearly inadequate. So far this year, committed exports of U.S. cotton to regions outside China have decreased by 190,000 bales, a decrease of 23%, Brazil's exports outside China have decreased by 800,000 bales, a decrease of 26%, and Australian cotton has decreased by 1 million bales, a decrease of 30%. Therefore, once China's import demand weakens, imports from other countries and regions will truly reflect the demand situation of global textile mills.

The collapse in international cotton prices in 2022 caused many textile mills around the world to suffer huge losses, and the continued interest rate hikes and the suppression of global economic growth have made the situation of textile mills even worse. The current tight supply of cotton exports and weak factory demand will continue to have a positive and negative impact on cotton prices this year. Looking ahead to 2024/25, one result of the recent surge in cotton prices could be an increase in cotton acreage, especially in western Texas, where improved soil moisture could limit the height of price increases in 2024/25.

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