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Polyester in 2023 is the overall trend of supply and demand increasing, considering the current polyester inventory and downstream grey fabric inventory is still high, so polyester profit is difficult to see trend expansion, mainly in the stage of supply and demand mismatch.

Production capacity of 8.18 million tons of polyester was put into operation in 23 years

It is hard to see a trend in profit expansion

From the perspective of supply, a large amount of new polyester production capacity will be put into production in 2023, totaling 8.18 million tons, of which 3.05 million tons of polyester filament, 1.13 million tons of polyester staple fiber and 4 million tons of polyester bottle chips are planned to be put into production. The production pressure of polyester bottle chips is relatively large. Taking into account the delay in production, it is expected that polyester production in 2023 May be around 5 million tons, with a 7% growth in capacity, roughly the same as this year. In terms of stock and supply, due to the low capacity utilization rate this year, polyester operating rate will have a large room to increase in 2023. The specific increase rate will be affected by inventory and cash flow level. Under the expectation of recovery of terminal demand, it is generally believed that polyester operating rate will have a moderate increase compared with 2022, and the annual capacity utilization rate may be increased to about 88%. From the new capacity and stock supply, polyester supply will be increased in 2023. From the perspective of demand, domestic demand is expected to recover slowly, especially the recovery in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but the export demand marginal decline, but the second half of the year is expected to gradually stabilize, the overall demand is expected to recover weakly, the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first half of the year.

Plummeting capacity utilization

Polyester filament pressure is greater than other polyester products

In 2022, the total domestic capacity will reach 47.83 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.71%. The annual output is estimated to be 33.05 million tons, with a growth rate of -6.13%. The output will show a significant negative growth, and the annual capacity utilization rate will fall to 69.1%. The performance of polyester products in 2022 is more differentiated, among which the downstream of filament is mainly woven, and the terminal is used in clothing textiles. In 2022, the overall demand for textile clothing is in a negative growth state. Therefore, filament silk has been in a state of low demand, high inventory and low cash flow throughout the whole year of 2022, and the capacity utilization rate has been passively reduced. And polyester filament stock pressure is larger.

In terms of downstream weaving, the annual operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in 2022 is only 54%, 16% lower than last year, which is at the lowest level in recent years. From the seasonal point of view, there were two rounds of obvious production suspension in weaving from late March to early April and from mid-October to early December, which basically corresponded to the development situation of the domestic epidemic. The rest time was also lower than the same period in previous years.

Go into vacation mode early

Polyester filament opening rate fell to the historic low in nearly five years

According to the convention, after entering December, the opening probability of polyester filament yarn and the downstream industry gradually declines, especially the downstream weaving industry gradually stops for holiday. However, this year, the polyester filament yarn enters the holiday mode in advance, and the opening probability of the polyester filament yarn has dropped to near 50% after Christmas, and some devices will still stop for maintenance before the Spring Festival holiday, and the opening probability of the industry may drop to below 50% by then. That's the lowest it's been in five years.

In the past five years, the average annual opening rate of polyester filament industry has gradually decreased from 90% to around 70%. Especially since this year, with the declining price of the epidemic and the geopolitical crisis and the roller-coaster trend of oil price, the polyester filament industry chain is in dire straits. The polyester filament industry is suffering from internal and external troubles, and the manufacturers are reducing the negative risk aversion, and the opening rate continues to decline. Since the second quarter, the opening probability of polyester filament industry has continued to decline, and during the "Gold nine and silver ten" period, with the recovery of terminal demand, the opening probability of polyester filament also increased slightly. However, it could not repeat the brilliant growth of "silver ten" demand in the early outbreak of the epidemic. After a brief rise, due to the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, logistics and transportation were limited, and domestic and foreign orders were sold out in advance. Polyester filament has also gradually opened the negative mode, as of press, the industry opening rate dropped to near 50%, compared with the high rate of 90% at the beginning of the year, down 41.2%.

In 2022, the polyester filament and terminal textile industry as a whole started passive decline. On the one hand, overseas orders did not appear to increase, on the other hand, some weaving enterprises reduced orders, weak external demand and domestic enterprises finished products inventory is high, production enthusiasm is not high; On the other hand, under the influence of multiple outbreaks of the epidemic in China, the working load of the elastics, weaving and printing and dyeing industries decreased, domestic demand was insufficient, and the supply pressure of the polyester filament industry was prominent, and the mode of reducing negative risk was started from time to time.

"Hongyang" brand polypropylene high strength yarn products have small color difference, good color fastness, high strength, and are widely used in decorative belts, safety belts, marking lines, etc.The company's main product:  polypropylene high strength yarn , polypropylene filament, polypropylene air change yarn，polyester air change yarn, ribbon.

Taixing Hongyang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has consistently adhered to the "excellent quality, customer first, quality service, adhere to the contract," the purpose, with high-quality products, good reputation, selling the country. Wholeheartedly with the domestic business win-win cooperation and common development!