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Private camps gather to expand PTA capacity, the increase will reach 32.6% in 2020

Since 2019, the domestic PTA industry has started the second concentrated expansion period in its history. According to statistics, after Sichuan Energy's 1 million ton plant was put into operation in May 2019, the 2.2 million ton plant of Xinfengming Phase I was successfully put into operation in November of the same year. Then in January 2020, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Dalian Hengli Petrochemical Phase IV were put into operation one after another, with a total production capacity of 3.7 million tons. In less than a year, PTA production capacity increased by 6.9 million tons, an increase of 13%.

The fifth phase of Hengli is also about to be completed in the later period. The second phase of Xinfengming is scheduled to be put into operation in September. At the same time, Fujian Baihong, Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe, Jiangsu Honggang Petrochemical and Ningbo Yisheng all have production plans in 2020, involving a total production capacity of 17.1 million Ton. If these new capacities are released as scheduled, it is estimated that the total domestic PTA capacity will reach 69.53 million tons by the end of 2020, with a capacity growth rate of 32.6%.

After several years of integration, acquisition, reorganization and expansion, private enterprises such as Hengli, Rongsheng, Hengyi, Shenghong and Tongkun have emerged. With the commissioning of integrated projects, manufacturers have further increased their market control capabilities. In the next few years, my country's PTA production capacity will continue to grow substantially, and private enterprises will still be the main force for expansion.

Outstanding advantages of leading enterprises!

With strong financial strength, PTA manufacturers have embarked on the road of developing vertical industrial chains. The top ten companies account for about 80% of the production capacity of China's entire PTA industry, mainly in East China, North China and Northeast China.

In recent years, the scale of PTA equipment put into production in my country is basically greater than 2 million tons. Compared with the newly put into production of large-scale upstream and downstream integrated equipment, the original small-scale equipment of about 1 million tons will gradually lose its competitiveness. Under the pressure of overcapacity , Some backward small devices may be shut down, and my country’s PTA industry may usher in a new round of industry integration. Among the many competitors, leading companies have prominent advantages.

First of all, for leading enterprises, because they already have a certain production base, the cost of expansion investment is relatively low.

Secondly, the core cost competitiveness of PTA lies in equipment and technology. It is a typical late-comer advantage industry. The later it is put into production, the larger the equipment cost, the lower the cost. In the past ten years, the marginal processing cost of PTA has dropped sharply from 1,000 yuan/ton to about 500 yuan/ton, mainly due to the economies of scale brought by large-capacity technology and the improvement of process technology.

Below, we are talking about the recent market situation of PTA:

PTA bargain hunters see the light?

Since mid-November, following the new low of PTA disk, coupled with oil prices, domestic and foreign vaccines, and positive news one after another, bargainers seem to have seen the light again. The almost extinguished flame of value investment has begun to reignite, and PTA futures prices have begun to rebound. As of November 27, the disk 01 contract has rebounded from a new low of more than 300 yuan/ton during the year, and the spot price in East China has risen by 200 yuan/ton.

Since the rise, very serious and practical questions have posed before investors and industry professionals: Is the market rebound or reverse in this round of rise?

1. Inventory pressure is again approaching a recent high

Although the PTA processing range has narrowed in November, the current overcapacity still maintains around 500 yuan/ton, and the processing range is still good.

Supported by this, the PTA device maintenance plan in November basically remained within expectations. The overall monthly average load of the domestic PTA basically remained near 89%, and the monthly supply was roughly 4.4 million tons.

In terms of downstream polyester demand, although new polyester equipment is expected to be put into production, some orders for domestic and foreign sales are showing a trend of heavy volume, but due to the excessive backlog of inventory in the previous period, the industry's high inventory pressure is still large, resulting in little improvement in weaving production enthusiasm. The monthly polyester load is still under great pressure, and the monthly supply of polyester is expected to be around 4.67 million tons.

Calculating the supply and demand in November, the daily output of PTA increased significantly, while the downstream polyester demand did not change much. PTA once again accumulated nearly 300,000 tons of warehouses in November. The daily accumulated warehouses of the whole month were mainly concentrated in the second half of the month. The current social inventory has increased to 366.79. In the vicinity of 10,000 tons, inventory pressure is again approaching the high level in recent years, and it is difficult to alleviate in the short term. There is now room for upside in the constraint period.

2. A strong basis is under great pressure

In November, there were fewer equipment maintenance, superimposed pressure on old and new goods, and storage capacity restrictions. The price difference was difficult to effectively improve. As of the time of writing, the spot basis was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton on the 01 contract. At present, from November to December, PTA will continue to accumulate a lot. Spot pressure will hit the market. PTA social inventory has not yet seen the momentum of relief, the basis of strong pressure is huge, and the weak structure will continue to be maintained.

Comprehensive considerations: There are indeed many positive events for oil prices, but their persistence and upside remain to be discussed. After all, the vaccine issue cannot meet the market's psychological expectations in a short time, and the number of new crown infections and deaths continues to set records. At the same time, although OPEC is expected to reach a delayed production increase plan, Libya, Iran, Venezuela and other countries are likely to break through the current low production capacity and significantly increase crude oil exports, which will impact the existing crude oil market supply and continue the oversupply of crude oil.

All in all, the good oil prices have indeed taken care of optimism in the market, but various uncertain factors still exist. The supply and demand of the PTA market are still expected to weaken. The market may continue to repeat before it completely reverses.

Taixing Hongyang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. has a professional R&D and production team, introducing advanced technology and equipment, and is committed to producing high-quality polypropylene high-strength yarns, polypropylene air-changing yarns, polyester air-changing yarns, ribbons and other products! The company is still growing, and we look forward to working with you for a win-win cooperation!

If you want to know more product information, please contact: Liu Xuelian 18914408040 Website: http://www.lnxnc.cn/