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The overall situation of the textile industry this year is: "Wang" is short-lived, and "light" is relatively long-lasting. The emergence of this state is first of all a problem at the downstream demand side. The loss of customers and the year-on-year decline of orders have been the consensus of all textile people. However, at this time, the situation at the supply side is no less than the demand side, and the new capacity and operating rate increase. I often come out and stir up the market.
The raw material side is strong, but the increase is insufficient.
On November 1, New York crude oil prices rose by nearly 4%. The next two days were also dominated by the rise, while the PTA futures prices were only adjusted in shocks and failed to bottom out. Even at the end of the rise in crude oil prices, the PTA price fell for four consecutive days.
Of course, within a few days, the price of PTA futures fell below 4,800 points from 4,800 points. The main reason is the large amount of PTA production. Before the new Fengming first phase PTA plant was put into operation, many sets of maintenance devices, such as Southwest and East China, were put into operation again, involving more than 4 million tons of production capacity. However, the price of PTA fell strongly, and the strength of the rise was obviously insufficient.
On November 13, one day, three sets of PTA units in East China were shut down for maintenance, involving a capacity of 3.5 million tons. Under such good news, the PTA price was “stable as Taishan”, and the futures price rose by 0.6% only on November 14 at 4700. Above, the PTA futures price fell below 4,700 points on the following November 15.
The state of the demand side is: the growth rate of terminal clothing sales slows down, and the textile market begins to decline as the looms are approaching at the end of the year. The price of upstream polyester products has shown a downward trend. Although there are often activities to reduce prices, the production and sales are still not optimistic. And since October, the polyester operating rate has dropped for five consecutive weeks and is currently maintained at around 88%.
PTA prices have appeared to be "immune" to the supply side, and all the rising opportunities are not sure, and every bad market, but the use of "have nothing more than." In the end, the upstream supply capacity is overcapacity, the influence is weakened; the demand side is shrinking, the situation of “supply exceeds demand” has already formed, and the influence of the demand side has far exceeded the supply side.
The printing and dyeing factory reverses the market, and the weaving factory makes its own way.
At present, the entire textile market is once again shrouded in the off-season atmosphere, especially the printing and dyeing factory that was squeezed out of the market by the market for fabrics. The current state of contrast is extremely great.
The bitter days of the weaving market are a little earlier than the printing and dyeing, and they last longer. They try to break the game and save themselves a little earlier. The head of a weaving factory with more than 300 looms in Wujiang area introduced us to the fact that the sales of polyester taffeta, Chun Yafang and silk, which they used to do in the past year, are very pessimistic.
When they realized that the re-weaving on the machine would only take up funds and backlog inventory, they decided to adjust to the current hot-selling and popular “recycled fabrics”, and then they applied for the GRS certificate. At present, the production and sales situation in the factory has been greatly improved, and the relevant product orders have been received.
The trade side harvested profits in a bleak
The dilemma of upstream raw materials, weaving, printing and dyeing has given the downstream textile trade a little breathing space.
This year's Nisi textile market is not comparable to previous years, but a fabric trader in Kunshan recently received an order for a nylon spinning of more than 500,000 meters. According to the person in charge of the company, this year's winter in China is basically warm winter, there is no market for down jackets, and the days of nylon fabrics are not good. However, the orders they received were for export, and the impact was not significant. And because they have enough orders, they have a big say in the price of grey cloth, and the dyeing factory is also actively fighting for them, and the service attitude is very good. In the case of weaving and printing and dyeing, his profit per meter is close to two yuan / meter.
At this time, as long as there are orders in the hands of textile traders, there is basically room for negotiation between grey cloth prices and dyeing fees. They are also a relatively relaxed group in the entire textile industry chain.
During the period of the year, all textile people were considering a question: Is it a Chinese New Year with stocks, or is it a break for the New Year? For production companies, inventory is the biggest problem at the moment. After all, fabrics can't be used as wages or rents; while processing companies face two years before the year, they continue to produce but have no orders, but the production is suspended for two months. Labor, rent, and depreciation are all gone.
Source: cloth factory
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