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From now until 2025, the energy industry will undergo tremendous changes, and the original business model will be subverted. In the next decade, the three major disruptive forces of solar power generation, environmental and economic factors, and ICT-enabled technologies will cause and cause each other causality and promote each other, which will trigger a drastic change in the global energy structure.

According to Xinhua News Agency, from June 17 to June 23, 2017, for seven consecutive days, all of Qinghai Province used renewable energy such as solar power, wind power and hydro power. During this week, the province used a total of 1.1 billion kWh of electricity, equivalent to less use of 535,000 tons of coal. However, another recent report pointed out that in the first few months of 2017, coal production in both China and India for power generation increased, reversing the trend of a sharp drop in coal output. Two reports reflect the opposite trend of development, then the proportion of global renewable energy will continue to rise? Or that traditional fossil fuels will still be the mainstream? Which one is the global energy trend for the next ten years?

To be sure, the energy mix in 2025 will change. In the future, energy consumers will have more choices. If energy producers can not improve their efficiency, they will all become problems in the market competition, let alone grow and develop. IT companies that provide energy-related products to producers and consumers will have many opportunities.

Accelerated solar energy development

Solar power has become a trend and is accelerating. After many years of record investment growth, especially in Europe, the United States, Japan and China, the solar power generation in 2015 has reached 1% of the total global electricity generation. China is currently the fastest-growing market. In 2016, it added 34.54 GW of installed capacity of solar energy with a total installed capacity of 77.42 GW, ranking the first in the world in new and cumulative installed capacity. The 2015-2019 Global Market Outlook report from Solar Power Europe, a European solar energy group, notes that the total solar power generation in Europe surpassed total nuclear power for the first time in 2014.

Investment in solar and other clean energy sectors was relatively weak in 2016, plunging 18% to 287.5 billion U.S. dollars from a record high in 2015. However, despite a decrease in total investment, the amount of additional solar power generated by the global grid increased by 19% in 2016, due to the decrease in the cost of solar technology. In contrast, power generation growth data more meaningful. If annual power generation increases by 20%, it will take only 3.5 years to double.

At this rate of growth, solar energy will rapidly grow into an undeniable force by 2025. Although the share of total energy is still relatively low, solar has the brightest prospects. Within ten seconds, the Earth receives enough solar energy to meet the world's energy needs for an entire day, including energy needs such as industrial and agricultural production, housing and transportation. The Earth receives enough solar energy in an hour to support global operations for an entire year. The solar energy that reaches Earth every hour reaches as high as 43 trillion joules, and all mankind consumes about 41 trillion joules of energy a year.

Environmental and economic considerations

Solar power generation is the main trend in global energy development, and this trend will be enhanced by another force, namely the double impact of environmental and economic considerations. Environmental considerations mean that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of global warming. Although it is still controversial in the United States and in a few other countries, it has gradually become an international consensus. Here, we do not have to prove that after all, almost all countries in the Paris climate agreement agree with this conclusion, including most of the world's industrial and energy companies, including Shell Oil also agree with this argument. The question we are facing now is how to sustainably meet the world's growing energy needs? At this time, we must consider the two major environmental and economic factors.

In the recent two years, increasing energy supply through clean technologies has not only met the environmental protection requirements but also has economic benefits. In short, the cost of clean energy continues to decline and will be cheaper than traditional fossil fuels. Of course, this is not to say that traditional oil and gas will be replaced in the short term. In fact, oil and natural gas will survive in the coming decades and continue to meet a variety of important energy and chemical needs.

Due to the oversupply of oil and gas in the global oil and gas market, the price of oil and gas has dropped sharply. As a result, the future outlook is full of uncertainties. The pressure on large oil and gas enterprises will only continue to increase.

In January 2017, Bloomberg reported that the cost of solar energy will soon be lower than the cost of coal power generation, which many once thought would never come.

Solar prices have fallen sharply since 2010, and if compared with other energy sources in the same chart, we can see that the price of solar energy is almost precipitative and the future trend is clear at a glance.

With further growth of new installed capacity, advances in technology and economies of scale, the cost of solar energy will continue to fall, compete with gas-fired power plants without subsidies and soon compete with coal-fired power plants. In fact, the power industry has also realized that in the long run, solar energy is the better choice. Recently, the United States, India and China and many other countries have announced plans to cancel the new coal-fired power plant. The cost of generating electricity from natural gas is now higher than that of new-generation utility-grade solar, so the economic outlook for solar energy is very positive.

In this case, the main obstacle to solar power revolution is the intermittency of power output: the sky will not always be sunny. However, advances in technology and lower utility-grade battery prices may ease the problem. Kauai, Hawaii, USA Adds Battery Field to Solar Power Plant to Achieve Self-sufficiency. The same pattern is coming soon in Australia.

ICT technology improves energy efficiency

The price of renewable energy (especially solar) plunges rapidly, and environmental considerations drive the growth of clean energy demand as two major forces affecting the global energy mix in 2025. ICT-enabling technologies, the third force, will connect all of these factors to increase the productivity of traditional and new energy suppliers.

First, we noticed that electrification of energy is the major trend. Vehicles, trucks and other motor vehicles will be more powered by electricity, and their share of energy in transport will be further increased. A report from Silicon Valley shows that by 2030, electric mobility will become the mainstream mode of transport, driving oil prices to $ 25 a barrel. As early as 2018, the cost of electric vehicles will be flat with traditional cars. Because of the simple structure of electric vehicles, low operating and maintenance costs, over time, the cost of electric vehicles will be significantly lower than gasoline or diesel vehicles.

However, the increase of electric vehicles will put forward higher requirements on the intelligence level of the power grid. The development of solar energy will also spawn the demand for forecasting tools. Such tools can accurately predict which areas have sufficient energy, which areas are not energy-efficient and allow for the rapid transmission of energy. Residential-grade power generation applications such as rooftop solar panels can use smart technologies to optimize power distribution if information on electricity generation and power generation can be shared between different households or buildings, greatly improving efficiency and even replenishing local natural gas power plants. To achieve these functions, network intelligence and Internet of Things technology is indispensable.

Traditional oil and gas companies must increase the efficiency of their exploration and drilling operations and plan more effectively to survive the declining demand, excess supply and oil prices as low as $ 25 a barrel.

Future market turmoil will also spawn new energy products. German startup Ubitricity launched such a new product in the European market. Ubitricity noticed that after the retrofit of municipal streetlights to LED lights, the street lamp energy consumption dropped drastically, but the poles still had the previous power supply capability. On the other hand, electric car owners want to be able to find charging stations at any time. Ubitricity found opportunities in it, installed charging outlets in the poles, and provided owners with tailor-made cables and plugs. The owner parked beside the light pole, connected to the charging pile, the software can trigger the payment function. As a result, municipalities and utilities earn revenue, and car owners can charge more quickly and easily, creating a win-win situation.

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