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The recent stunning rise in PTA prices is not accidental. Under the collision of various factors, PTA prices have sparked.

On the one hand, the raw material PX processing fee continues the repair process. From the perspective of the PX market this year, the PX processing fee has been in a compressed state, with the lowest processing fee reaching US$118, and the processing fee has recently been restored to around US$170.

Judging from the recent strong trend of crude oil, the market still holds optimistic expectations for the later period. Coupled with the expectation that PX supply and demand will improve, the PX processing gap is still expected to continue to be repaired, which will support PTA. Therefore, under the situation of strong oil prices , PTA may continue strong shocks.

On the other hand, the price of PTA has been at an absolute low level in the previous period. This time, driven by the increase in crude oil, coupled with the pull of financial forces, PTA has experienced a reasonable and unexpected increase.

Recently, due to the expansion of the delivery warehouse, some sources of goods have been transferred to the delivery warehouse and registered as warehouse receipts, resulting in a slight shortage of liquidity in the spot market, which has supported PTA prices to a certain extent.

Starting from the second half of this year, the contradiction between supply and demand in the polyester industry has become very significant, and the story of "overhaul and load reduction" in the market has never stopped.

In December, although some equipment of PTA is expected to be overhauled, the overall supply is still high. According to estimates, if the equipment is overhauled as scheduled, the output in December is estimated to be 4.5 million tons, which is still a breakthrough in history. new highs.

On the polyester side, some companies announced the maintenance plan in December, but the specific time is not clear. It is temporarily estimated that it will begin to appear after the end of December. Then the demand for PTA will continue to be rigidly supported. It is expected that the polyester production in December will be 478 Million tons. The weakening of demand may begin to appear around mid-January.

In the short term, the loose supply and demand situation of PTA is difficult to improve, and the cost side is supported by crude oil, and the price trend is strong and volatile.

However, from a long-term perspective, the supply of PTA continues to grow, and a large number of warehouse receipts in the future delivery warehouse may become the norm.

1. The supply of PTA will continue to increase

From January to November 2020, PTA will add 8.4 million tons/year of production capacity, with a total production capacity of 57.03 million tons/year. In 2021, the PTA industry is expected to add 11.5 million tons/year of production capacity, including Fujian Baihong 2.4 million tons/year, Honggang Petrochemical 2.5 million tons/year, and Yisheng Ningbo Petrochemical with a total of 6.6 million tons/year PTA Device. From the perspective of production time, the production time of PTA devices will be concentrated in the first half of next year. If the above production capacity is successfully put into operation, the PTA industry capacity growth rate will reach 20% in 2021. Although the operating rate of the PTA industry may decline due to the expected impact of the compression of processing fees, the PTA supply pressure is still very large.

2. The growth rate of polyester production is not as fast as the growth rate of PTA supply

From January to November 2020, polyester added 4.49 million tons/year of production capacity, and the launch of new production capacity went smoothly, exceeding market expectations. In 2021, under the "dual cycle" development pattern, the domestic economy will further recover, and domestic demand in the textile and apparel industry will slowly improve. In addition, the signing of RCEP will also enhance my country's export competitiveness of chemical synthetic fibers. At present, the expansion of polyester capacity is mainly based on the integrated configuration of upstream and downstream of the industry leader. The company has a stronger overall anti-risk ability and a higher tolerance for high inventories and low profits. It is expected that the launch of polyester capacity next year will be relatively smooth. In 2021, the polyester industry is expected to add 6.355 million tons/year of production capacity, and the capacity growth rate will reach 10.2%.

3. PTA social inventory will continue to accumulate

At the beginning of 2020, the PTA social inventory was 1.334 million tons. During the year, the PTA industry's production capacity expanded rapidly, but downstream demand was insufficient. As of December 4, PTA social stocks rose to 4.156 million tons, an increase of 2.822 million tons from the beginning of the year. According to the PTA and polyester capacity release plan, the growth rate of PTA supply in 2021 will far exceed the growth rate of demand, and the oversupply will further intensify, and the social inventory may approach 5 million tons during the year.

4. PX-PTA-Polyester industry chain profits will be redistributed

In 2020, the overall profit level of the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain will drop sharply. The profits are mainly concentrated in the PTA industry, while the profits of the PX and polyester industries have been greatly compressed. In 2021, in the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will be more prominent, followed by PX and polyester. The profit of the industrial chain will also be redistributed, and the PTA industry will enter the era of low processing fees, and the processing fees transferred from it will flow into the PX and polyester markets with relatively good supply and demand. With reference to the previous round of the PTA industry cycle, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will fall back to the level of the same period in 2015-2016, and the overall processing fee operating range will be 300-500 yuan/ton.

In short, in 2021, the oversupply of PTA will be further aggravated, and processing fees for the PTA industry will also be compressed. With low processing fees, the cost-side guidance on the absolute price of PTA will be further enhanced.

Taixing Hongyang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. has a professional R&D and production team, introducing advanced technology and equipment, and is committed to producing high-quality polypropylene high-strength yarns, polypropylene air-changing yarns, polyester air-changing yarns, ribbons and other products! The company is still growing, and we look forward to working with you for a win-win cooperation!

If you want to know more product information, please contact: Liu Xuelian 18914408040 Website: http://lnxnc.cn/