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Although the European and American stock markets have recently stopped falling and stabilized, and have even rebounded slightly, the trend of international oil prices is still not optimistic. On March 30, the US oil even fell below 20 US dollars / barrel, hitting a new low in 18 years. At present, the epidemic situation abroad is becoming increasingly severe, and the market's anxiety about the demand side of crude oil has begun to rise. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Russia's oil price war has not yet subsided. It is the sharp drop in crude oil that has led to insufficient cost support in the polyester industry, and the prices of polyester raw materials and polyester filament have hit record lows.

Polyester raw material stocks reach new highs and new low prices

In the environment of weak crude oil supply and demand, the domestic polyester industry is also facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. Judging from the current inventory of polyester raw materials, they are at absolute high levels. At the end of March, the domestic PX social inventory rose to 2.2 million tons, the highest level since September 2017; the PTA social inventory will climb to 3.1 million tons, and a record high, and the ethylene glycol main port inventory is expected to increase to 1.11 million tons , Close to the high level of 2019. At this stage, the polyester industry is not only facing high raw material inventory pressure, but also is in a dilemma that high inventory is difficult to channel downstream.

The current pressure on the terminal weaving industry comes from insufficient follow-up of domestic sales and reduction of export sales, and demand for the entire polyester industry is slowly recovering. Overlaying the crude black swan incident, aggravated the market's wait-and-see attitude, and further slowed down the speed of the finished product inventory in all links of polyester, so that the current gray cloth inventory reached a high level of 43.5 days. It can be seen that the entire polyester industry is in a accumulation cycle.

Under the influence of high inventory, polyester raw materials broke through the historical low in 2008 across the board. As of March 30, 2020, the price of PX was USD 466 / ton, down 18.96% from 2008; PTA prices in the East China market were 3080 yuan / ton, down 27.53% from 2008; Zhangjiagang Petrochemical's MEG price was a new low 2948 yuan / ton, down 16.96% from 2008. It can be seen that this round of decline is more rapid than in 2008. One is because the cost of crude oil has fallen and the polyester raw materials have been accompanied by lower costs under the influence of costs. The other reason is the concentrated release of new capacity, especially the refining and chemical integration. With the launch of chemical projects and its supporting capacity, the supply of polyester raw materials has grown rapidly since the second half of 2019.

Foreign trade orders stalled

Despite the orderly resumption of domestic work, the current foreign trade demand is experiencing a second shock, diyi times. Due to the domestic epidemic, downstream rework is generally postponed for one month, resulting in delays in the delivery of some foreign orders by customers. The second time, after mid-March, the overseas epidemic spread rapidly, and the foreign orders were cancelled again or the shipment was delayed. The stagnation of overseas consumption, brand apparels have closed stores, orders have shrunk, and overseas closure of the country or closure of the city, affecting foreign merchants can not receive goods on time.

From the export data, due to the domestic epidemic situation in January-February could not be shipped normally, coupled with the cancellation of some orders, leading to a sharp drop in exports by 20%, overseas epidemic situation spread in March-April, consumption fell, and foreign merchants could not receive goods normally The export growth rate is expected to continue to decline (currently the foreign order cancellation or delay in March-April ranges from 30-50%).

"Promoting volume with price" has had very little effect, reducing production and burdens as a last resort

A large number of export orders were cancelled or delayed, and due to the shrinking domestic sales orders, weaving gray fabrics could not be shipped, and the gray fabric inventory rose again (the warp knitting inventory was above 20 days, and the water jet weaving inventory was above 40 days). A few weaving companies Began to sell goods at low prices, the overall mentality of the downstream market panic. Recently, the major polyester filament manufacturers began to refuse to drop prices and turned to fast bargaining prices. Polyester filament has fallen by more than 20% in the past two weeks. At present, the filament has reached the cost line, and FDY has even fallen into a loss. However, even with such a strong price reduction promotion, the panic of the terminal is still difficult to dissipate, there are very few people who buy the bottom, and the daily production and sales are only about 50%. The large polyester filament factories with high inventory are facing pressure to reduce production again. Some major filament manufacturers have reduced production. In terms of terminals, starting from last week, weaving booting is facing a second correction. The time period for the start-up decline is at the end of March and early April. The periodical start-up correction may be more than 20%, and the upcoming Qingming holiday may decline more. .

Where is the market and when can I stockpile it?

Under the influence of the empty side, this round of polyester industry decline is still in progress, after breaking the previous low, it seeks new support. In general, the March polyester industry downturn can be seen as a follow-up to the cost collapse of crude oil caused by the collapse of the crude oil sector, and the negative impact of the spread of overseas public health events. So in order to explore the procurement node and cycle of the polyester industry, we must start from two aspects, one is the recovery of the demand side, and the other is the stop of the cost side.

From the demand side, although the domestic polyester industry has been resumed as a whole, the terminal inventory is still difficult to digest in the short term, and the impact of terminal foreign trade orders has also weakened the polyester industry demand to a certain extent. In addition, there is no stop-signal on the cost side, and the stocking cycle in the market has all narrowed. It can be seen that the inflection point on the demand side of the polyester industry or on the premise of the inflection point on the cost side leads to a greater impact of the weight of the variable on the cost of the polyester industry. Due to the multiple uncertainties of the crude oil market at this stage, including the compromise of price wars, the follow-up stimulus policies of the global central bank, and the turning point of overseas epidemics, it is predicted that short-term high crude oil price fluctuations will begin to normalize. For a long time to come this year, cost factors will be the core driver of the pricing of the polyester industry. The fluctuation range of international oil prices in the future may be 20-25 US dollars / barrel.

Taixing Hongyang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. has advanced equipment and exquisite technology. It mainly produces 500D ~ 4000D polypropylene high-strength yarn, polypropylene air-changing yarn, polyester air-changing yarn and polypropylene ribbon. The praise of our customers.

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